abb – anyone but blair

July 17, 2009

brown_blair

Ficando na Inglaterra… Gordon Brown resolveu apoiar a “pré-candidatura” de Tony Blair à presidência da União Européia. Um cargo que ainda não existe nem no papel. PQ diabos ele fez isso eu não sei. Primeiro, apoiar Tony Blair não ajuda a imagem de ninguém. Segundo, SE POR UM ACASO, os dois homens forem eleitos (o que é muito improvável), o drama entre os dois tomaria o palco internacional. E quem quer isso?

If Mr Brown won another term, some British ministers believe, the two men might find themselves at odds. Mr Blair would have to bat for the EU as a whole and could not always side with Mr Brown when he defended the national interest.

“There would be bound to be tension,” one minister said. “It could be the return of the TB-GBs,” he added, referring to the rows the men had prior to Mr Blair leaving Westminster. […]

The former prime minister is seen as the most heavyweight and charismatic of the possible runners in what could be a crowded field. But it is by no means certain that he would win the race. […]

Mr Blair’s status as the favourite was somewhat bolstered by Gordon Brown’s endorsement on Wednesday. “If Tony Blair decides to stand as President of the European Council, once that job has been created, then of course we will support him,” the Prime Minister’s spokesman said.

But that support is of limited usefulness. There is a growing feeling in European capitals that Mr Brown is headed for the exit. That has reduced his clout and ability to influence his EU counterparts. And other EU leaders remain doubtful about Mr Blair taking the job.

Principais candidatos:

TONY BLAIR That the former prime minister, who has since 2007 been the Middle East envoy on behalf of the EU, the US, Russia and the UN, might be a contender for the job has been the worst kept secret in EU capitals for months. The idea of Mr Blair’s candidacy was first mooted by the French President, Nicholas Sarkozy, who saw him as a charismatic figure who could rally public support. But many others were aghast at the idea of the EU’s least enthusiastic member state, one which is not even a member of the euro, supplying its leading public figure.

FELIPE GONZALES The Spanish prime minister for 13 years, he secured Spain’s entry into the EU before falling from view in a political scandal in 1996. Very pro-European, he is reported to have won the support of the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, from Blair. Geography could count against him; if Portugal’s Jose Manuel Barroso stays on as Commission president, there could be accusations of an Iberian overload.

JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER – The Luxembourg Prime Minister is in the top three for post but will struggle to clinch German and French support due to a row over tax havens. Could be seen as too federalist by UK.

ANGELA MERKEL Everyone’s favourite after her outstanding performance during Germany’s EU presidency. But likely to win general elections with strong majority in September and stay home.

JAN PETER BALKENENDE Pro-European, liberal and generally liked Dutch Prime Minister. But he has not expressed much interest in leaving The Hague and lacklustre personality may count against him.

Três países (Irlanda, Polônia e República Tcheca) não ratificaram o Tratado de Lisboa (que prevê a criação do cargo de Presidente da UE) o que significa que Merkel provavelmente pode servir mais um mandato como chanceler da Alemanha pra depois se tornar presidente da União Européia. Yup. E Tony Blair pode ficar na dele.

No Financial Times: Why is Brown backing Blair?

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